Now it is certain, the representatives of the provinces and the central association of health insurance (GVK) expect the government ordered the new vaccine against swine flu spending by 1 billion euros exceed them well; consistently urged the Association to the Federal Government to increase health insurance contributions or more money into the health fund to shoot, and the order for the new vaccine has already been sent, is not expected to qualified objections, the management of the swine flu crisis takes place in other countries similarly gratifying. Overall, the following applies: Rosy outlook for investors in the increasingly competitive, currently playing booming pharmaceutical market. We should therefore behave as investors clearly cyclic: Cyclic crisis.
The flu crisis is a huge opportunity for the otherwise ailing market system, its potential can not be overestimated: Money in loco-motion - for good observer: This version of the frequently maligned capitalist crisis means. It is shown that those who react quickly, can jump up on the still moving train in order to be "on board" in the autumn, when the Grippezug is really going. The scenario has already been planned by the authorities very well. But even if it should not come to the extreme, those who have purchased shares of pharmaceutical companies in time will not regret it. Beginners can also just here to give a strategic decision to acquire the corresponding shares will soon experience a success.
We give special attention to in our subsequent analysis and recommendations on the Novartis-Behring judge with headquarters in Basel, Switzerland.
Novartis is a global company with leading positions in the field of human vaccines. In 2006, the Group had net sales of $ 37 billion and a net profit of 7.2 billion dollars. In 2007, Novartis increased this result compared to the previous year to 38.1 billion dollars and achieve a net profit of 6.5 billion dollars. The Novartis Group companies employ around 101,000 employees in over 140 countries.
Novartis is particularly good on the market set up what it owes to the timely patenting their MF59 adjuvant and the farsighted submission in two samples of vaccines in 2006: for Focetria ®, contains the said adjuvant and for another, similar, in the event that there is no pandemic should be declared. This allows far-sighted patenting it now, of course, but even more so, to fix prices in the market and return to a favorable effect. We should keep in mind as an investor.
In the current swine flu crisis, the company could secure contracts in 35 countries for vaccine delivery. But the contracts with the U.S. government for the future supply of H1N1 vaccines and delivery of the new MF59 adjuvant amount to 979 million dollars, which just barely missed the Novartis one-billion mark.
Particularly gratifying for Novartis : In January 2007, the U.S. Department of Health and the pharmaceutical company provided a grant of 55 million dollars from taxpayers' money to further develop the MF59 adjuvant technology in the U.S. in order to enlarge the event of a pandemic vaccine supplies can. This may have affected the profit forecast for the U.S. site also positive, because not insignificant costs could be saved. (Press release v. 8.5.2007)
The plan is to vaccinate 160 million Americans - but only once with vaccines without the adjuvant, the FDA has not yet been given their consent, unfortunately, but it is for the 4th Quarter of 2009, Novartis considered safe. So Novartis strengthened its portfolio targeted strategic growth area in a crisis
The decision to protect the sera for the first time and to patent the adjuvants is, since 2006 a positive economic momentum: over the vaccine sales of German pharmacies sharply, climbing from 182 million € (2006) to 285 million € (2008). This result is quite impressive!
In Germany, the adjuvant MF-59 Novartis Behring in Marburg is made. For the very inquisitive: An adjuvant is a substance or a substance cocktail, a "enhancer", the vaccine added to enhance the immune response of the body with the active ingredient, the so-called "antigen".
Novartis recently launched a new division intiierte named "Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics," which is now the world's fifth largest vaccines manufacturer and second largest supplier of flu vaccines in the United States.
Novartis makes an almost exemplary public work, their commitment to their mission is tireless. "Novartis is committed to global pandemic preparedness and works closely with representatives of governments and authorities to assist them in their efforts in pandemic preparedness. Novartis has engaged in discussions with various governments, which deals with the provision of pandemic influenza vaccines, and also provided H5N1 vaccines [bird flu] for the stockpiling, mainly in the United States and Great Britain. "
"Novartis supports the leading role of WHO in global pandemic planning."
(At this point we would have expected the slightly more sensitive term "pandemic prevention"), "The WHO is a key element in pandemic preparedness [that is not the willingness to plan for a pandemic or organization to prepare, but the willingness to to prepare and keep ready], ensuring cohesion and coordination amongst all stakeholders to the industry, including governments of both developed and developing countries and their populations. "
In our view, the cooperation with the governments involved is so good and that they sometimes can be counterproductive: For example, Federal Health Minister Ulla Schmidt felt at times set by the pharmaceutical industry under pressure. This will be for the benefit of the shared visions clearly still working on dealing with each other! Otherwise, investors and consumers could be confused. No one can wish!
The new vaccine from Novartis, which is attached to the innovative additive is now being tested with high pressure from universities and institutes throughout Germany as Munich, Hamburg and Mainz. Is the center for clinical studies at the Center for Child and Adolescent Medicine of the university medical sponsors of the pharmaceutical giant a vaccination that is part of an international attempt to 2,000 volunteers, including children from the age of 6 months. Even after 43 days of the new material is ready for market be!
Where else is there such a chance? Have you ever seen any product that has been declared within a few weeks for market-ready? Exactly! Ergo: It `s time bull!
How much the new vaccine will be in demand by the population, was clearly just based on interest, to let them inject new, never before tested on humans Vaccine: The crush was so great that many children and adult volunteers had to be rejected ...
The importance of adjuvants was from Novartis judged just right: Without an adjuvant, a substance or a chemical cocktail that is the antigen for the current virus that is ineffective or triggers no immune reactions such as fever, dizziness, headache, body aches, swollen lymph nodes and vomiting . No one can want.
For speed to market of "Hello-wake cocktails" of our immune system had been taken precautions pleasing anticipation. Even in the days when people (on) prepared the bird flu, one had acquired the approval of the Impfgrundsubstanzen at the European Medicines Agency in a so-called mock-up process. With each new pandemic that already stocked matrices need only be slightly altered to a cocktail with the current "pandemic antigen" be changed to mix - and you're on the very first vaccine, the first market! Fortunately, the European Medicines Agency has approved this procedure without any problems, so it will now be subject to any delays.
The safety and responsibility for the now oncoming studies has been clarified in the run flawlessly. That is something we should not, because there will always be voices that reflexively criticize pharmaceutical companies. And pharmaceutical trials and studies are specifically approved by the EU and advocates.
The ethics commission of the respective universities in which seated responsible and experienced practitioners of the respective faculties blessed, from the studies underway.
For a little insecure among investors here, the following additional information (which may simply skip this section more determined):
The European Medicines Agency ( EMEA ) is founded in 1995 by decree of the European Union agency based in London, which is responsible for the evaluation and supervision of medicinal products. In her work she uses the highly qualified experts from the national drug regulatory authorities of 30 Member States of the European Union and its associated states. Germany sends staff from various federal agencies and institutions to the EMEA, for example, from the Paul-Ehrlich-Institute for Vaccines, the Federal Office for Consumer Protection and Food Safety and the Federal Institute for Drugs and vaccine products.
The EMEA in 2008, approximately 470 employees and a budget of 173 million euros. Approximately 73% of the budget is supported by fees that they pay to pharmaceutical companies for the processing of authorization requests. This invalidated and unqualified polemical objections (typical example Frontal 21 )
The EMEA is sponsored by the pharmaceutical industry: it is not a sponsorship, but simply to charges that the company must pay to the EMEA in order to be admitted to studies.
The EMEA also maintains a register, EudraCT , for all clinical trials carried out since 2004 for human use in the European Union. This register is confidential, the public has no access. An unqualified, unprepared inspection of the data in this would stir up unfounded fears and lead to misinterpretation, so access is restricted to authorized government officials and experts from the EMEA permitted.
The new adjuvanted vaccines were approved in February 2007 by the EMEA for clinical trials - of 470 experts. The security is guaranteed.
Currently, in Germany tested 3 mixtures: Two sera which have the swine flu protein + respectively different amounts of MF59 as well as a vaccine solution (without the new adjuvant) with a lot of antigen which was prepared innovative first time not with chicken eggs, but on canine kidney cells. Which cocktail, the subjects received not know this, so they remain "blind".
Important for the public and to potential investors: The subjects of ongoing studies have been pre-written and cleanly made aware of the experiment: "A randomized, single-blind dose-finding study to evaluate the immunogenicity, safety and tolerability of different formulations of a cell-based monovalent subunit vaccine from new inactivated H1N1 influenza virus porcine origin with and without adjuvant in healthy volunteers over the age of 18 years. "
It is not surprising that occur despite all precautions, in exceptional cases, subject to the public in order to draw attention to themselves and to score points with scaremongering in the media:
Sun maintains a Munich subject: "'The vaccination has made me sick - the test is irresponsible." Even a few hours after inoculation on 10 August had confessed to the sweat on his forehead., I felt completely beaten. On the third day, my kidneys and my head hurt and I got a fever. Then I had a coughing fit - and the sink was suddenly red. It was blood! '
The Munich-based LMU medical scientist Frank von Sonnenburg, who heads the study nationwide want to believe the accounts do not., Such side effects may have nothing to do with vaccination 'He does not conceal that, as with other flu vaccinations as a defensive reaction to the flu-like symptoms may occur vaccination., can also occur at the injection site discomfort, redness or swelling. '
Of course, many subjects had side effects., To find them, we are making such a study. If the illness is getting worse and we had not previously tested - then all would cry out loud '.
The vaccine has to be approved quickly to study? The fact is. In this composition, he has not been used in humans "(Münchner Merkur, 21.8.2009).
A similar single phenomenon, the pronouncements of the publisher of the "drug-telegram," Wolfgang Becker Brüser: "What we are witnessing here is a large-scale trial of the German population." The 'drug-Telegram, "it has seen time and again in the falsest moment to speak up and to appeal to vague fears among the population.
Also annoying but without weight is also the statement by Matthias Gruhl, (Head of Health in Bremen), who argued that a mass vaccination is not given the small number of cases and the mild course of disease is justified. "If the course of the swine flu is as harmless as now, a mass vaccination would not be justified, "says Matthias Gruhl. The Robert Koch Institute has so far only 6800 people in Germany infected with the swine flu virus on. This looks at first glance does not look very promising, but as is so often the first impression is deceptive.
The crisis-cyclical trading investors need not worry. The public debate will still splash a while - however, we will strictly follow the guidelines of the WHO are based. This warning has proclaimed 6, and thus a global swine flu epidemic, a pandemic level,. To follow the guidelines of the WHO, it has also committed Germany to the adoption of the International Health Regulations (IHR) in the German Bundestag on 6/15/2007 binding under international law. This process of globalization and internationalization of Impfvorgaben is irreversible and the WHO vaccination recommendations are clear enough!
A certain drawback is, of course, is from this perspective, the fact that the government plans, "only" 25 million people vaccinated, especially vulnerable pregnant women and children, but promise to experts the beginning of mass vaccination, but already from the beginning of October, so even earlier as hoped. Even cheaper would be vaccination of all electors to coincide with the parliamentary elections in late September, children and old people could easily get vaccinated in nurseries, kindergartens, schools and nursing homes - even our Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel herself could at the ballot box with a high-profile vaccine and a determined, forward-looking extra dose of MF59 to set an example and strengthen the pharmaceutical in Germany. So be it! The targeted numbers are still so apt to put a crisis-cyclical economic stimulus and thus create a favorable climate for stock buyers quickly determined.
Our investment magazine "Realsatyre" has given you, as we find, honest and meticulous the "Ups and Downs", the "pros and cons" portrayed. The bottom line, however, is our recommendation and our prediction clearly justified and properly researched: Novartis shares are still up for this season and well into the year 2010 is an absolute highlight. Our buy recommendation means putting set now on H1N1 following page: http://www.novartis.com/investors/share-data-analysis/dividend-history.shtml
Addendum 08/26/2009
Yesterday did you look at ZDF Frontal21 a few thoughts, look here .
Tags: adjuvants , drug-Telegram , H1N1 , vaccine trial , Matthias Gruhl , MF59 , Novartis , Novartis Behring , swine flu , Wolfgang Becker Brüser
